UKIP result will not prove to be seismic
The UK Independence Party's leader, Nigel Farage, is understandably delighted with the result of the Eastleigh by-election where his party came second, beating the Tories into third place.
He says he hopes to cause a "political earthquake" next year in the European Parliament elections.
And he predicts that it is only a matter of time before UKIP wins a seat in Westminster.
"In by-elections to come, we will achieve victories.
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"This is not just some mid-term protest as David Cameron tries to say. This is a clear, defined trend," he said.
Meanwhile, Mr Cameron insists that people were registering a protest vote in Eastleigh and is confident that the Conservatives will win them back at the next General Election.
And he says that his party will not move to the right to encourage voters back from UKIP.
The Prime Minister is in a no-win situation.
It seems likely that UKIP will split some of the Conservative vote in the next election and that will make it hard for the Tories to win.
However, a lurch to the right or an alliance with UKIP would alienate centre-ground voters who are also vital to victory.
Mr Cameron's entire strategy has been to rid the Conservatives of their image as "the nasty party" and try to occupy that coveted centre ground.
He will not change course now.
Despite the results of the Eastleigh by-election and the obvious strength of UKIP, this remains his best strategy.
The battle for the centre is where elections are won and lost and it would be disastrous for the long-term future of the Tories if they allowed themselves to get side-tracked into a fight for UKIP voters.
Despite Mr Farage's spirited predictions about political earthquakes and defined trends it is unlikely that UKIP will represent any serious and sustained challenge to the major parties in the foreseeable future.
Labour and the Conservatives will continue to be the two main contenders and will continue to fight for the centre – which is the political ground that most of the British public occupy.
9 Comments
by democrat
Sunday, March 03 2013, 5:37PM
“Don
Indeed so
However, there was a shortage of labour and rising rates of pay.
Under the last Loabour government immigartion has held rates of pay down (but created lots of loyal Labour voters)
1950 - jeez”
by DonHenson
Sunday, March 03 2013, 5:24PM
“Immigration is often blamed on Labour. The funny thing is, the Conservative government of 1950-55 actively encouraged it, led by a Health Minister by the name of Enoch Powell who travelled far and wide to invite immigrant workers to the UK.
Something he tried to forget later.”
by NickDiPerna1
Sunday, March 03 2013, 1:08PM
“@graydjames
Both.”
by democrat
Saturday, March 02 2013, 8:37PM
“It is a bit late to be worried about immigration
Stable doors and horses springs to mind.”
by graydjames
Saturday, March 02 2013, 8:14PM
“I've now read a few NickDiPerna comments on this site and I cannot decide if everything he says is tongue in cheek and meant as a joke or whether they are supposed to be taken as serious comments.”
by disident3
Saturday, March 02 2013, 8:06PM
“LikeItaLot.
It is the deleting of comments that angers people. I do not want more migrants coming to this country, we are running out of room. That is an opinion and it is not racist, it is a known fact. We are being brainwashed into believing immigration is good; that is fair within reason. Deport criminals and terrorists that is not racist it is common sense. To many in high paid jobs telling us having an opinion is racist. I commented on another site that like Belgrave Asians moved in and many whites moved out, that is a known fact. I was banned. That says it all about controlling the masses.”
by LikeItaLot
Saturday, March 02 2013, 6:57PM
“If BNP and EDL are put in a post does the censor chop it automatically?”
by NickDiPerna1
Saturday, March 02 2013, 2:21PM
“The Conservatives will get what they deserve for not challenging the status quo. They kept all those public departments intact, who use their funding to spread anti-Tory propaganda.
I love this article. Here's what they should have done:
http://tinyurl.com/akoae3a”
by KulganCrydee
Saturday, March 02 2013, 7:53AM
“It is a shame that the Tories split the UKIP in Eastleigh. What the impact that UKIP will make at next GE is to be seen & we have the LE & EE before then. What Eastleigh has shown is that it is an up and coming party which resonates with the people.”