Jonathan Ashworth is the front-runner to win the Leicester South seat in Thursday's by-election, our poll suggests.

The survey indicated that almost two-thirds of voters, 60.8 per cent, were likely to vote for the Labour candidate.

The Conservatives came second, with 19.8 per cent.

The Liberal Democrats, who won the seat from Labour in a by-election in 2004 but lost it to Labour in the General Election the following year, came third, with 14.1 per cent.

Michael Dugher, Labour's campaign manager, said: "In relatively recent times this seat has been won by the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Labour.

"Jon Ashworth and Labour will fight hard for every vote – we take nothing and no one for granted.

"Jon and his team will be working right up until the polling stations close at 10pm on Thursday to ensure that the people of Leicester South take their unique chance to send a message to Cameron and Clegg about their unfair cuts and broken promises."

Tory candidate Jane Hunt said: "Second is good, although I would have hoped it would be a bit closer than that – and it does seem closer out on the doorstep.

"In the areas we are canvassing, we are knocking on every door and we are getting a good response."

Respondents were asked which party they would vote for, not which candidate.

Chris Leaman, campaign manager for Zuffar Haq, who is standing for the Lib Dems, said if the candidates' names had been put forward in the poll rather than the parties, the result would have been "very different".

He said: "It's clear that when the people of Leicester South go to vote they will be making a decision on who is the best choice for their MP.

"In Zuffar, we have someone from Leicester who has stood up for Leicester for years while the Labour candidate has come from Mansfield.

"It's clear that regardless of party politics, Zuffar Haq is has the best credentials to be the next Leicester South MP."

Mr Ashworth and Mr Haq are at odds over who is the "most local" candidate in the by-election.

Mr Haq is using adverts against his Labour opponent pointing out that until recently Mr Ashworth lived in Mansfield while he is from Leicester.

However, Mr Ashworth has pointed out that Mr Haq lives in Oadby, which is in another constituency, and that he is the only candidate who lives in Leicester South.

The results of the poll were weighted by Survation to make the sample of people questioned representative of the electorate.

In the unweighted results, 29.8 per cent of respondents said they would vote Labour, 9.5 per cent said Conservative and 7.1 per cent said Lib Dem.

The number of people who refused to say was 28.5 per cent, 17.8 per cent said they were undecided and 4.9 per cent said they would not be voting.

Respondents were also asked how they would vote in the referendum on whether to switch to the alternative vote (AV) or stick with first past the post.

Just over 40 per cent said they would vote no, 28.5 per cent yes and 31.3 per cent were undecided.

By-election: Voting intentions by party (weighted)

Party %

Conservative 19.8%

Labour 60.8%

Liberal Democrat 14.1%

UKIP 5%

Monster Raving Loony 0.3%

Weighted by age and gender. Adjusted for likelihood to vote, refusals and undecided.

By-election: Voting intentions by party (unweighted)

Vote %

Conservative 9.5%

Labour 29.8%

Liberal Democrat 7.1%

UKIP 2.1%

Another party 0.3%

Undecided 17.8%

Refused to say 28.5%

Will not vote 4.9%